{"id":25052,"date":"2019-12-10T05:30:26","date_gmt":"2019-12-10T10:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hearts-sciencecom.local\/?p=25052"},"modified":"2021-12-22T15:09:01","modified_gmt":"2021-12-22T20:09:01","slug":"one-more-reason-to-vote-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hearts-science.com\/en-gb\/one-more-reason-to-vote-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"One more reason to vote tomorrow…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u2026especially<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span>if you\u00a0<\/span><\/span>think<\/span><\/span>\u00a0it won\u2019t make any difference<\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n

This Thursday will see one of the most important UK elections in which the general public will be looking to the polls more than ever before.\u00a0<\/span>However<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0can they be trusted?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2008 Nate Silver did something extraordinary. He predicted\u00a0<\/span>the\u00a0<\/span>winners\u00a0<\/span>of\u00a0<\/span>all 100<\/span>\u202fU.S. Senate\u202fseat<\/span>s. Polling companies had correctly predicted the result of a presidential race\u00a0<\/span>before<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0but no-one had ever so accurately predicted a Senate race. Overnight Nate Silver became a Data Science superstar with interviews on CNN and a partnership with the New York Times to support his blog.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Full\u00a0<\/span>of<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>confidence,<\/span>\u00a0Silver turned his attention and his methodology to<\/span>\u00a0the 2010 UK general election. And he got it\u00a0<\/span>completely<\/span><\/i>\u00a0wrong<\/span>. Undeterred he had a crack at\u00a0<\/span>the 2015 and 2017 UK general elections<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0and he struck out again. After his reputation remained intact by correctly predicted the US elections during the intervening years<\/span>,<\/span>\u00a0he eventually gave up on UK elections citing poor quality data.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In spite of<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>his<\/span>\u00a0high-profile fails, Nate\u2019s UK election experience does point to an interesting insight into the unique\u00a0<\/span>difficulty with\u00a0<\/span>UK\u00a0<\/span>general election<\/span>\u00a0predictions<\/span>\u00a0rooted within\u00a0<\/span>building a representative sample of voters.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As most already know UK voters are grouped into 6<\/span>5<\/span>0 constituencies of between 60k to 80k voters. The party with the most votes in each constituency sends an MP to parliament. The party with the most MPs in parliament forms a government (usually).\u00a0So\u00a0to predict an election result requires a robust sample in all 650 constituencies. The YouGov\/Sunday Times poll \u2013 one of the most comprehensive and respected \u2013 is currently running at 1,680 respondents. That equates to 2.8 voters in each constituency. Hardly statistically significant.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This does beg the question as to what is the value of polls then? The simple answer is\u00a0<\/span>storytelling. They give news outlets something\u00a0<\/span>\u2018concrete\u2019\u00a0<\/span>to talk about<\/span>\u00a0whether it\u2019s\u00a0<\/span>Boris\u00a0<\/span>winning a TV debate or the Lib Dems\u2019 Remain story having traction.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>And in the absence of any more robust evidence to the contrary, then it\u2019s worth reporting and acting upon.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The best of the bunch we found was<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>https:\/\/www.electoralcalculus.co.uk\/<\/span><\/a>\u00a0which\u00a0<\/span>is\u00a0<\/span>based on\u00a0<\/span>a\u00a0<\/span>reasonable\u00a0<\/span>10,827\u00a0<\/span>voters<\/span>\u00a0(18 voters\/constituency)<\/span>. Despite having a sample size 10x larger than\u00a0<\/span>Yougov<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>it\u00a0<\/span>doesn\u2019t tend to get too much coverage.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>While<\/span>\u00a0they didn\u2019t get 2015 or 2017, they did at least get 2010\u00a0right\u00a0so they\u2019re one-up on poor old Nate.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Above all else, what we like about Electoral Calculus is that they are open-sourced with their\u00a0<\/span>methodology \u2013 remember what your primary school maths teacher once told you\u2026<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This all points to several\u00a0<\/span>watch-outs\u00a0<\/span>for our industry when it comes to insight derivation and analysis. The first is always question the source of an insight and the underlying data. The proliferation of\u00a0<\/span>new\u00a0<\/span>data and techniques\u00a0<\/span>is exciting but i<\/span>f\u00a0<\/span>these new approaches are\u00a0<\/span>black box\u00a0<\/span>and you\u00a0<\/span>can\u2019t unpick<\/span>\u00a0the methodology then handle the insights with care.<\/span>\u00a0Secondly and more broadly, beware of the insatiable desire for \u2018the answer.\u2019 This can put pressure on\u00a0<\/span>whoever\u2019s doing your analytics to deliver any answer. Create an environment whereby people can challenge the robustness of data with confidence.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And i<\/span>n case you\u2019<\/span>re curious\u00a0<\/span>and\u00a0<\/span>despite<\/span>\u00a0our\u00a0<\/span>misgivings about data quality\u00a0<\/span>you\u2019re\u00a0<\/span>still keen to see a prediction for the election, w<\/span>e have\u00a0<\/span>reweighted\u00a0<\/span>Electoral Calculus\u00a0<\/span>predictions (<\/span>as\u00a0<\/span>they were still predicting 650 MP\u2019s) and\u00a0<\/span>had a stab at the results\u2026<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Party<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nElectoral Calculus\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nHearts Prediction\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

CON<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

347<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

308<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

LAB<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

225<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

246<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

LIB<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

13<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

22<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Brexit<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

2<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

SNP<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

41<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

45<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Other<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

16<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

20<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

DUP<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n8<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\n

7<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So<\/span>\u00a0remember on Thursday \u2013 whether you\u2019re in a \u2018critical swing\u2019 seat being targeted by an opposing party or if your local MP is nailed on to win, question the source of that wisdom\u00a0<\/span>and the robustness of the sample when you\u2019re\u00a0<\/span>queu<\/span>ing<\/span>\u00a0to vote at your local polling station.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

James Londal, Chief Data Officer, Hearts & Science UK<\/p>\n

Garrett O’Reilly, Managing Director, Hearts & Science UK<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2026especially\u00a0if you\u00a0think\u00a0it won\u2019t make any difference This Thursday will see one of the most important UK elections in which the general public will be looking to the polls more than ever before.\u00a0However,\u00a0can they be trusted?\u00a0 In 2008 Nate Silver did something extraordinary. He predicted\u00a0the\u00a0winners\u00a0of\u00a0all 100\u202fU.S. Senate\u202fseats. Polling companies had correctly predicted the result of a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":25053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOne more reason to vote tomorrow... – Hearts & Science<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hearts-science.com\/en-gb\/one-more-reason-to-vote-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"One more reason to vote tomorrow... – Hearts & Science\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u2026especially\u00a0if you\u00a0think\u00a0it won\u2019t make any difference This Thursday will see one of the most important UK elections in which the general public will be looking to the polls more than ever before.\u00a0However,\u00a0can they be trusted?\u00a0 In 2008 Nate Silver did something extraordinary. 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